Books

The Diffusion of Military Power: Causes and Consequences for International Politics
Princeton University Press, 2010
Edgar S. Furniss Book Award ISSS Best Book Award Lasswell Prize ISA Best Book Finalist
Why Leaders Fight
Cambridge University Press, 2015 · With Allan Stam and Cali M. Ellis

Peer-Reviewed Articles

AI & Technology

"Morally Opposed? A Theory of Public Attitudes and Emerging Military Technologies"
With Sarah Maxey · Conflict Management and Peace Science (2025)
"Bending the Automation Bias Curve: A Study of Human and AI-based Decision Making in National Security Contexts"
With Lauren Kahn · International Studies Quarterly 68:2 (2024)
"Adopting AI: How Familiarity Breeds Both Trust and Contempt"
With Lauren Kahn, Julia MacDonald, and Jacquelyn Schneider · AI & Society (2024)
"Algorithms and Influence: Artificial Intelligence and Crisis Decision-making"
With Erik Lin-Greenberg · International Studies Quarterly 66:4 (2022)
"COVID-19 and Public Support for Autonomous Technologies"
With Lauren Kahn, Julia MacDonald, and Jacquelyn Schneider · PLOS One 17:9 (2022)
"What Influences Attitudes about Artificial Intelligence Adoption: Evidence From US Local Officials"
With Lauren Kahn · PLOS One 16:10 (2021)
"Ethics and Governance of Artificial Intelligence: Evidence from a Survey of Machine Learning Researchers"
With Baobao Zhang et al. · Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research 71 (2021)
"Do Emerging Military Technologies Matter for International Politics?"
Annual Review of Political Science 23 (2020)
"When Speed Kills: Autonomous Weapon Systems, Deterrence, and Stability"
Journal of Strategic Studies 42:6 (2019)
"Artificial Intelligence, International Competition, and the Balance of Power"
Texas National Security Review 1:3 (2018)
"Public opinion and the politics of the killer robots debate"
Research & Politics 3:1 (2016)

Drones & Weapons

"To Compete or Retreat: The Diffusion of Precision Strike"
With Joshua A. Schwartz · Journal of Peace Research 62:4 (2025)
"Who Gets Smart? Explaining How Precision Bombs Proliferate"
With Lauren Kahn · Journal of Conflict Resolution 67:1 (2023)
"What is a military innovation and why it matters"
With Shira Pindyck · Journal of Strategic Studies 46:1 (2023)
"Do Armed Drones Reduce Terrorism? Evidence From 18 Countries"
With Joshua A. Schwartz and Matthew Fuhrmann · International Studies Quarterly 66:3 (2022)
"Climbing the Ladder: Explaining the Vertical Proliferation of Cruise Missiles"
With Bryan Early, Nolan Fahrenkopf, and James Walsh · Journal of Conflict Resolution 66:6 (2022)
"Who is Prone to Drone: Analyzing the Proliferation of Armed Uninhabited Aerial Vehicles"
With Joshua A. Schwartz and Matthew Fuhrmann · Conflict Management and Peace Science 39:2 (2022)
"The Consequences of Drone Proliferation: Separating Fact From Fiction"
With Sarah E. Kreps and Matthew Fuhrmann · International Security 41:2 (2016)
"Droning On: The Proliferation of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles and Military Innovation"
With Matthew Fuhrmann · International Organization 71:2 (2017)

Leaders & Conflict

"Military Attitudes on the Chemical Weapons Taboo: Evidence from the Pacific Theater"
With Christopher Blair · Journal of Politics 86:3 (2024)
"Honor Among Thieves: Understanding Rhetorical and Material Cooperation Among Violent Non-State Actors"
With Christopher Blair et al. · International Organization 76:1 (2022)
"Leadership Targeting and Militant Alliance Breakdown"
With Christopher Blair and Philip Potter · Journal of Politics 84:2 (2022)
"What makes Foreign Policy Teams Tick: Explaining Variation in Group Performance at Geopolitical Forecasting"
With Dustin Tingley and Philip Tetlock et al. · Journal of Politics 81:4 (2019)
"Sizing Up the Adversary: Leader Attributes, Credibility, and Reciprocation in International Conflict"
With Philip Potter, Todd Sechser, and Allan Stam · Journal of Conflict Resolution 62:10 (2018)
"Studying Leaders and Military Conflict: Conceptual Framework and Research Agenda"
With Matthew Fuhrmann · Journal of Conflict Resolution 62:10 (2018)
"Tactical Diversity in Militant Violence"
With Evan Perkoski and Philip Potter · International Organization 72:1 (2018)
"Domestic Signaling of Commitment Credibility: Military Recruitment and Alliance Formation"
With Paul Poast and Allan Stam · Journal of Conflict Resolution 61:8 (2017)
"How Prior Military Experience Influences The Future Militarized Behavior of Leaders"
With Allan Stam · International Organization 68:3 (2014)
"Allying to Kill: Terrorist Intergroup Cooperation and the Consequences for Lethality"
With Philip Potter · Journal of Conflict Resolution 58:2 (2014)
"When Leaders Matter: Rebel Experience and Nuclear Proliferation"
With Matt Fuhrmann · Journal of Politics 77:1 (2015)
"Non-State Actors and the Diffusion of Innovations: The Case of Suicide Terrorism"
International Organization 64:1 (2010)
"When Does Aerial Bombing Work? Quantitative Empirical Tests, 1917–1999"
With Dan Reiter · Journal of Conflict Resolution 45:2 (2001)

Working Papers

"Out of the Loop: How Dangerous is Weaponizing Automated Nuclear Systems?"
With Joshua A. Schwartz · Revise and resubmit
"Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and the Future of Strategic Stability"
Under review
"Driving Too Fast or Too Slow? Explaining Military Adoption of the Combustion Engine"
With Laura Resnick Samotin · Under review
"Artificial Intelligence and International Security"
With Ben Buchanan, Sarah Kreps, and Erica Lonergan · APSA edited volume
"Automation Bias in the Military: An Experimental Approach"
With Lauren Kahn and Laura Resnick Samotin
Defense Innovation (book manuscript)
Draft completion expected Fall 2026

Policy & Public Writing

"The Cost of the AGI Delusion" (with Lauren Kahn)
Foreign Affairs · September 2025
"Is the Pentagon Slowing Artificial Intelligence Adoption?" (with Radha Plumb)
CFR.org · August 2025
"Will Trump's 'Big, Beautiful' Defense Spending Last?" (with Erin Dumbacher and Lauren Kahn)
CFR.org · July 2025
"What Drones Can—And Cannot—Do on the Battlefield" (with Lauren Kahn and Joshua A. Schwartz)
Foreign Affairs · July 2025
"Nuclear Non-Proliferation is the Wrong Framework for AI Governance" (with Lauren Kahn)
AI Frontiers · June 2025
"Fixing the Pentagon's Broken Innovation Pipeline" (with Lauren Kahn)
The National Interest · June 2025
"Autonomous Weapon Systems: No Human-in-the-Loop Required, and Other Myths Dispelled"
War on the Rocks · May 2025
"What America Gets Wrong about the AI Race" (with Radha Plumb)
Foreign Affairs · April 2025
"What to Know about the New Trump Administration Executive Order on Artificial Intelligence"
Council on Foreign Relations · January 2025
"What to Know about the New U.S. AI Diffusion Policy and Export Controls"
Council on Foreign Relations · January 2025
"Stealth and Scale: Quality, Quantity, and Modern Military Power" (with Joshua A. Schwartz)
War on the Rocks · December 2024
"Battles of Precise Mass"
Foreign Affairs · November/December 2024
"A Force for the Future" (with Lauren Kahn and Laura Resnick Samotin)
Foreign Affairs · May/June 2022
"The Perils of Overhyping Artificial Intelligence" (with Julia Ciocca and Lauren A. Kahn)
Foreign Affairs · April 2021
"War by Timeframe: Responding to China's Pacing Challenge"
War on the Rocks · November 2021
"China Has Made Drone Warfare Global" (with Joshua A. Schwartz and Matthew Fuhrmann)
Foreign Affairs · November 2020
"The Morality of Robotic War" (with Paul Scharre)
The New York Times · May 2015